Long-term football bets

Long-term bets are bets where the result would usually take a long time (over a week) to become known.

Classic examples of this are football bets on ‘Who is going to be the German champion?’, ‘Who will win the DFB Cup?’, ‘Who will be champion / champions?’, ‘Who will get the Champions League, the UEFA Cup, FA Cup? etc. ‘index

Long-term bets do not have the high voltage effect and that irritates many fans at Sports Betting, when otherwise you can share the excitement in a game; but, on the other hand, with long-term bets enormously high rates – and thus profits – can be achieved.

The best time for long-term bets is the time just ahead of a season or a tournament (the World Cup, the European Championships), when you have to look at the clubs or national teams very carefully – who has increased in strength or has been developing well? Who might have long-term injuries, or promising talent; which teams have lost important players? And then, you are going to have your own estimates to compare with those of the bookmakers.

indexThere is little value to place all bets on high favorites. Rather, one must try to grab the chance to find up-and-coming outsiders who are to be underestimated by the bookmakers.
To give you an example, we ourselves had placed bets before the 2003/04 season on the Bundesliga champions Bremen and Leverkusen – the rate was for both 35.0. So we have for 2×50 euro, as Werder became in fact the German champion, received 1,750 euro.

indexOnly after several game days are over, can you better assess the clubs, but then already, of course, the rate drops accordingly.

For international competitions you can often enter, even after the beginning of the betting event, not quite so very well, because here the bookies believe mostly in the big favorites Real Madrid, Manchester United, Brazil or France until the very end.

If you believe in an outsider – use your chance!

Currently, of course, are long-term bets – bets on the masters in the Bundesleague – quite in demand. For a master bet on Bayern, currently available at Bet365, the highest rate is (1.62). Borussia Dortmund (BVB) also counts as a great name among the favorites and will do everything to defend the title. – The best odds of Borussia Dortmund are about 6.00 with Sportingbet and William Hill, and for Bayer Leverkusen – as a master’s odds – at Sportingbet: 15.0. Bet365 keeps ready a very good rate of 81.0 on one of the great mavericks Hannover 96.

Poisson Distribution in betting

Poisson Distribution is one of the most popular statistical systems used in making football betting predictions. Its main idea is to display the individual coefficient of strength of each team against an overall average level for all teams in a league and thus predicting the chances of each team for winning a match.

How to work with Poisson Distribution? To give relatively accurate results, it is mostly needed to set a common value, which is equal to all teams. indexWhen we talk about sports, this value is usually the points or goals scored by the teams. Most often for football matches Poisson Distribution has four such common valuesand these are the average number of goals scored by the hosts, the average number of goals allowed by the hosts, the average number of goals scored by the guests and the average number of goals allowed by the guests.

When we have these four figures, what we need is to compare the individual results of both teams. How are they calculated?

To do this we look at the ratio between the average number of goals scored by the host to the average number of goals scored by all hosts in the league. This yields a coefficient that indicates the strength of the hosts or more precisely the host’s chances to score in the match. Then do the same with the chances for the hosts to concede a goal, for the guests to score and to concede a goal too.

When we have the needed four values it is time to use the formula for the Poisson Distribution. It is too complicated to discuss here, so I suggest using one of the dozens of online betting calculators that compute the Poisson Distribution. You can also find the function in Excel that performs the same operation.

The advantage of using a betting calculator for Poisson Distribution is that they are made so to give a percentage chance for each possible outcome. When you have this information with you, it only remains to compare the odds offered by the betting houses with the percentage probabilities and bet where you find a value.

Of course, if it was that easy everyone would do it. The tricky part in the Poisson Distribution is in the further fine-tuning that everyone has to do in order to have success. It is obtained by the method of trial and error, which should be well known to all who deal successfully with football betting predictions.

Betting prediction for Norwich against Chelsea

Norwich holds the tenth place in the standings in Barclays Premier league, but the team managed to beat teams like Manchester United and Arsenal. An achievement that very few teams in the league can be proud of. Now at Carrow Road comes Chelsea, which just a few days ago made the biggest win in the Premier League this season, over Aston Villa with 8:0 at home.index

It is obvious that Chelsea enters this match as a strong favourite, but how will they manage to deal with Norwich? In their last matches, Norwich showed extremely strong performance by playing very compact in the defence and relying on a heavy central striker to deal with the opponents’ defence. It definitely brings them success as at home Norwich has lost only one game to Liverpool so far. They have the incredible five wins and two draws. Their compact playing style is shown even more clearly in their away matches as they have five draws in ten matches. Only Stoke City has more in the entire league.

indexWill Chelsea strikers be able to break that defensive line? This is the key issue in the match. Fernando Torres finally shows everything that was expected of him. After the appointment of the new team manager Rafael Benitez, Torres started to do what he was supposed to do – scoring goals. This must be counted without doubt when making our betting prediction for this match.

On the other side, Chelsea’s defence is specialized in dealing with lone strikers in their heavy penalty area, which means that the team of Norwich will be very limited in terms of scoring goals.

That’s why I can bet on fewer goals scored in this match. The bookmakers offer good odds to play for under than 3 goals scored in the match. Bet365 proposal for this bet is 1,725, which is enough. For me, this game will produce around two goals, but I still leave one more goal which if it happens to return me the stake.